Horse Racing Systems #10 with Andrew Mount - Shergar Cup Flops

                                                                                     ‘Shergar Cup flops’

Andrew Mount writes

Several years ago, when a regular pundit on William Hill racing radio I devised my ‘Shergar Cup flops’ system which highlighted fancied horses who had underperformed at Ascot’s Shergar Cup meeting with a view to backing them next time. The theory being that they had been ridden by unfamiliar jockeys with little or no experience of the track and that was a valid excuse for the defeat. I defined a ‘flop’ as a finishing position of fourth or worse when starting at odds of 9-1 or shorter and having ignored this system in recent years I thought it was time to revisit it.

These are the results since 2008…

…34 of the 316 qualifiers won (10.76% strike-rate) for a profit of £77.75 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£190.82 at Betfair SP after 2% commission). The expected number of winners based on their odds was 29.26 giving a WAX (winners above expected) score of 4.74 and an actual over expected figure (A/E) of 1.16.

Looking at the jockeys who rode them at Ascot last time, I had expected the winners to have come from those ridden by foreign-based riders but that wasn’t the case, with big profits from those ridden by Jamie Spencer, Hayley Turner, Jimmy Fortune and Graham Lee. There were a couple of angles that helped to improve the profit – excluding last time out front-runners (three from 37, -£18.50 to a £1 level stake at SP) and ignoring those who ran over 5f last time out (three from 50, -£16.50). Throwing out the front-runners and Shergar Cup Dash qualifiers gave the following results…

The qualifiers who were returned to the track quickly (within ten days) also fared poorly, failing to register a win from 26 attempts, while those dropping class also returned a loss (seven from 71, -£35.21).

SPIRIT MIXER (4.10 York, Wednesday, August 20^th) is the latest qualifier after his 4-1 fifth of nine to Fireblade under Jo Mason in the Shergar Cup Stayers 11 days ago.

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