Andrew's Cheltenham Angles Part 2 Tuesday

                                                                                                                        Cheltenham Stats – day 1

2.00 – Singer Arkle Challenge Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

Age

Five-year-olds rarely take part but they have a poor record ,with no winners from 12 runners since 2008…

…here’s the full breakdown by finishing position….

…this year’s antepost favourite LULAMBA is a five-year-old.

In the past ten years, six-year-olds have taken the honours on seven occasions…

…and backing them blind returned a profit of £14.18 to a £1level stake at SP. This year’s six-year-old entries are MAMBONUMBERFIVE, KALACONTI, KAPPA JY PIKE, KARGESE, KOPEK DES BORDES and SALVATOR MUNDI.

Running style

Two of the last ten winners made all, seven were prominent in the early stages while only one, Duc Des Genievres in 2019, was ridden patiently. That was in a rare big field renewal (12 ran)…

Speed ratings

Six of the past ten winners had received the highest (orjoint highest) last time out speed figure from Proform. Backing all 12qualifiers returned a profit of £5.29 to a £1 level stake at SP…

…this year, that looks like being Kargese, who received a figure of 88 for her narrow second to Romeo Coolio at Leopardstown (Kopek Des Bordes, 75, and Lulamba, 82, are well behind her). Kappa Jy Pyke (85) is not far behind her.

2.40 – Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Finishing position last time out

Generally, there are two types of Fred Winter winner – those who arrived at Cheltenham having finished fourth or worse last time out, often under a patient ride in a Graded contest, and those who won in Class 4 or lower company, needing to show their hand to ensure that they got into the race.

Regular readers of my ramblings will be aware of my stats regarding runners who finished second or third in their prep race (GB and IRE preps only as my database doesn’t cover French form) – they have a poor record since the Fred Winter’s inception, even after 17-2 shot Puturhandstoegther took the honours last year…

…laying these at Betfair SP returned a profit of £144.34after 2% commission (+82.48% on turnover).

Trainer nationality

Eight of the last ten winners were trained in Ireland and backing all 93 qualifiers returned a profit of £84.50…

Prep race

Six of the past ten winners prepped in a ‘rated’ race inIreland (four at Naas, one at Navan and one at Fairyhouse). Backing all 22qualifiers returned a profit of £70.50…

The Naas race took place on Saturday February 7^thand was won by HIGHLAND CRYSTAL from obvious eyecatcher SARATOGA. The otherrunners were MUNSIF, KILMEADEN and GENEALOGY.

Speed ratings

Speed figures have not been the best guide to this race. Backing those with one of the top nine Proform ratings (when assessing all ratings in the past 12 months) would have found just one of the last ten winners…

Days since last run

Since the inaugural running in 2005, backing all runners whohad raced within the past five weeks would have found 16 winners from 240 bets for a profit of £62.00…

…backing only those who won last time out found nine winners from 65 bets for a profit of £63.50…

3.20 – Ultima Handicap Chase

Market Position Last Time Out

Runners who started as favourite (including joint and co-favourites) in their prep races have won five of the past ten renewals of the Ultima. Backing all 26 qualifiers returned a profit of £18.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 2.19, A/E = 2.28)…

Market Position

The market has been a good guide to the Ultima in recent years, with nine of the last ten winners returning at an SP of 11-1 or shorter.Backing all 60 qualifiers returned a profit of £20.00 to a £1 level stake at SP…

…last year’s six qualifiers included the 13-2 winner, 7-1runner-up and 11-1 fifth (plenty of firms were paying five or even six places)and backing all the qualifiers each-way is a system I have been following forseveral years now.

Country of Breeding

Nine of the last ten winners were Irish bred…

Trainer Nationality

This has not been a good race for Irish trainers (0-37 in the last ten years)…

Headgear

Eight of the last ten winners wore blinkers, cheekpieces, a tongue-tie or a combination of headgear. However, this has become something of a self-fulfilling prophecy as we sometimes see most of the field wearing headgear (e.g. 19 of the 23 runners in 2020), often for the first time. Last year, 13 runners wore headgear and all were beaten.

Running Style

One winner made all, six more were prominent, while only three winners (from 147 runners) were ridden patiently…

System

Irish breds who started at 11-1 or shorter (SP) were nine from 44 for a profit of £39.00…

4.00 – Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy

Horse sex

It’s a 5-5 draw in the battle of the sexes across the last ten renewals of the Champion Hurdle but the mares’ victories came from just 12runners as opposed to 91 for the geldings…

4.40 – Trustatrader Plate Handicap Chase

Finishing position last time out

Backing runners that finished second, third, fourth, fifth or sixth last time out has been a route to the poor house, with just one winner from 164 bets across the past 15 renewals for a loss of £149.00 to a £1 level stake at SP…

…the expected number of winners (judged by their Starting Prices) was 7.46.

In the same 15-year study period, last time out winners showed a profit of £31.08 thanks to eight winners from 59 bets…

Running style

Four winners made all (+£20.25), seven winners were prominent throughout (+£68.33) while hold-up horses were just four from 222 (-£173.00)…

Those runners with a Proform pace rating of zero (i.e. ridden patiently in their last three starts) were 0-59…

However, and it’s a big however, this race has been transferred from Thursday (New Course) to Tuesday (Old Course) and the bias to prominent types is not certain to be repeated.

Prep race

13 of the 15 winners prepped over 2m3.5f-2m5f…

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