Horse Racing with Andrew Mount #16 'Last Time Out Winners'

                                                                                                       Last time out winners

Andrew Mount writes; Back in March 2020, James Willoughby wrote an interesting ‘Betting Masterclass’ piece for the Racing Post in which he discussed the record of last time out handicap winners, especially in relation to speed and running style. I want to re-visit that article to see if we can use it to produce a profitable betting system. 

This is the record of all last time out handicap winners in Britain and Ireland on their next start, since the beginning of 2016…

…the 13,686 winners was 59.64 fewer than the market expected and backing them blind returned a loss of more than £12,500 at SP (though ‘only’ -£2,255.04 at Betfair SP after 2% commission).

Now let’s split the last time out handicap winners by Proform’s speed rank for their next race, with 1 being the top last time out rating…

…those who were ranked top (1) on last time out speed had a superior strike-rate to those ranked second (2), who in turn had a better strike-rate than those ranked third (3), all the way down to tenth place.

Willoughby suggests that the speed figure for those who won from the front last time out might be more reliable, because the good speed figure means that they didn’t receive an easy lead. He also suggests that horses who were behind early might have been flatted by a pace collapse. The following table shows the last time out running style of the winning handicappers who were now ranked top on LTO speed (L = led, P = prominent, H = held up)…

…those who led last time out showed a profit at Betfair SP (+3.25% on turnover after 2% commission), those who were prominent returned a small loss (0.56% on turnover) whereas those who achieved their good winning figure from off the pace lost 8.91%. As I wrote this article on Wednesday afternoon there were four upcoming qualifiers who were held up last time…

…Amber Honey (third 3-1f), Thurso (sixth 13-2) and Prince Achille (2^nd 100-30) were all beaten. Moor End runs tomorrow (November 27^th).

Let’s concentrate on those who made the running last time out and see if we can produce a profitable punting system. Splitting by race type makes interesting reading, with the Flat runners (A/WE and Turf) in the table below showing a loss but the jumpers did well..

Lumping the chasers/hurdlers together gives the following figures…

…a healthy profit of 14.44% at Betfair SP. We can improve the figures if only backing those who are running at the same class level as for their last time out victory…

…the next qualifier is HOWAYA NOW in the 2.05 at Uttoxeter on Thursday (November 27^th).

System summary

Won a handicap from the front last time out, now running in a chase or hurdle race (handicap or non-handicap) and ranked top on Proform’s last time out speed figures. Preferably in same class as for the win.

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