It Worked In The 80's? #4 HAMPERED Last Time Out.

That's the video, here are the workings.

Andrew Mount writes... 

Controversially, this week’s ‘It worked in the 80s’ article comes from the year 2008 but with Royal Ascot on the horizon it’s going to be relevant next month, and I felt it was worth jumping forward by a decade or three. The inspiration for this week’s system comes from Nick Mordin’s Racing Post Weekender column in late June 2008, reproduced below…

Plenty of racing fans from mine and Simon’s generation started taking their punting seriously thanks to Mordin’s books – ‘Betting For A Living’ and ‘Mordin On Time’ and his Weekender column was the reason I bought the paper. The reason for Samsung UK’s huge phone bills can be directly attributed to me calling his premium rate line from the Inter Footwear customer hotline – the only phone in the Brentford HQ which didn’t have an itemised bill…

…I wasn’t interested in the bets as much as the reasoning behind them, which could run to a tenner a day if you listened all the way through. Not a small sum in 1996.

Back to the article – Profit From The Unlucky Ones Next Time Out. My first thought was this is hard to do, as horses who are obviously unlucky in running will surely be over-bet in their next few starts? But the two horses he mentioned – Marchand d’Or and Intrepid Jack - did indeed pay to follow. Marchand d’Or rattled off a hat-trick (5-2f, 8-5f, 2-1f) after his unlucky defeat at Royal Ascot, including the July Cup and Prix  Maurice de Gheest – the two targets suggested by Mordin – before landing the Prix de l’Abbaye, a race I remember well as I tipped 25-1 runner-up Moorhouse Lad. Intrepid Jack was beaten on his next outing, finishing seventh of ten over an inadequate 5f trip at Sandown (13-2), but bounced back to score over 6f at Newbury when 12-1 for the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes. The author suggests that we should be looking for formbook comments such as “baulked”, “bumped”, “hampered”, “not much room”, “not clear run” or “carried” so I used the Profrom database to go back to the year 2008 and find out what happened to runners who received those comments on their latest outing...

Baulked – only cropped up once so I’ve ignored this one.

Bumped – this comment occurred 434 times with 35 runners landing their next start for a loss of £145.57 to a £1 level stake at SP. However, this covers all races – Flat and jumps – yet Mordin’s piece refers to 5f-6f races. There were 126 qualifiers over those trips and only six won, returning a loss of £53.25.

Hampered – this comment featured in the close-up comments of 2143 runners in 2008, with 209 winning at the next time of asking (-£542.59 to a £1 level stake at SP). Again, these figures cover, Flat turf, all-weather and jumps races but has we only bet horses who were “hampered” in Flat turf races of 15 or more runners on their latest start we would have done pretty well…

…finding 26 winners from 169 bets for a profit of £89.63 (expected winners = 15.59, A/E = 1.67). The bulk of the profits came in races over 5f-1m, though the sample sizes over the longer trips were small. Of greater interest was whether the big-field “hampered” run came in a handicap or a non-handicap…

…those who had run in a handicap had a superior strike-rate and made a big profit, while the last time out non-handicappers recorded a loss. 

This looks an interesting angle, but it only covers one year (2008), so let’s examine how we’d have done since…

…plenty of losing years at SP but the overall profit at Betfair SP (after 2% commission) was £363.01 (+14.35%).  Omitting the qualifiers who ran in non-handicaps last time also boosted the profits…

Taking only the last-time out handicappers, these are the results split by last time out distance…

…Those who ran over 5f-7f showed a profit at SP and those who ran over 5f-1m showed a profit at Betfair SP.

Ignoring those who were switched to fences or hurdles next time also improved the profits…

…backing only the Flat runners (turf and AW) who were now running over 1m2f or shorter produced the following results…

…with the qualifiers who finished out of the frame last time (i.e. 5th or worse) doing even better…

Summary

Look for horses who received the comment “hampered” when running in a Flat turf handicap of 15+ runners last time out

Back those who are now running over 5f-1m2f on the Flat (turf and all-weather)

Those who finished out of the frame last time out are likely to offer better value.


Stop press
I’ve just realised that I went down the rabbit hole with “hampered” and I didn’t cover some of the other close-up comments, but I ran the figures for “not much room” and they also worked (using the same criteria of 5th or worse in a 15+ runner Flat turf handicap LTO, now running over 5f-1m2f, turf or all-weather)…

“Carried” produced a smaller sample size but was still profitable at Betfair SP after comm…

“Not clear run” returned a loss…

If you have enjoyed this feature and don't already have an account with AK Bets, you might want to consider signing up, there's an introductory offer via our link below. Mounty and I will get some commission if you sign up and lose, but with these articles we'll do our best to ensure you don't, plus he stands them so if you win, AK hurts! Please click below to add to his pain!