It Worked In The 80's? #7 'Making Those Nurseries Pay.'

MAKING THOSE NURSERIES PAY

This week’s ‘It Worked in the 80s’ looks at another Systems Analysis by Formulator article Andrew Mount writes

“Making Those Nurseries Pay’…

The article begins…

“July sees the start of the nursery season, so this is the moment to answer a letter from a reader from East Anglia. He writes “It is well known that a good system is to back the top weights in nurseries during August”. His theory is that horses carry weight better on easy tracks. His selection of tracks is: 
Brighton
Chester
Epsom
Edinburgh (Musselburgh)
Folkestone (RIP)
Goodwood
Kempton  (RIP turf course)
Lingfield
Sandown
Thirsk
Yarmouth
I wouldn’t argue with the selections apart from Sandown…”

Let’s begin by looking at all top weights (including joint or co-topweights) in nurseries (handicaps for two-year-olds) on turf in Britain since the 2016 season…

…249 winners from 1502 bets (16.58% strike-rate) for a loss of £408.06 to a £1 level stake at SP. At Betfair SP (after 2% commission) the loss is reduced to £256.55 (or -17.08% on turnover). Laying all the qualifiers at Betfair SP made a profit of £215.40 after commission (+14.34% on turnover).
The nameless reader from East Anglia suggests that August is a good month to back top weights in nurseries, so let’s see if that holds true.

…not great – a loss at both SP and BSP and a negative WAX (winners above expected) score of -12.07.
The reader also talked about better results on easy tracks, so let’s examine that angle…

Brighton, Chester, Epsom, Goodwood. Musselburgh, Lingfield, Thirsk and Yarmouth were the tracks he cited but only Lingfield produced a profit at SP.

I looked at every year this century and backing top weights in turf nurseries in Britain only returned a profit at SP in 2005, 2012 and 2015. At Betfair SP there were also profits in 2006 and 2024, albeit just a tiny profit last year.

The conditions under which top weights tend to win in nurseries is on their nursery debut when switching from patient tactics to front-running (the ‘brakes are off’ as the cynics would say) and those looking for a more robust laying angle than to oppose top weights blindly might want to oppose only those who had previously raced in handicap company.

This returned a profit of £169.73 or 23.19% at BSP (after commission) since 2016.

Those nursery top weights with previous handicap experience did even worse if they were previous winners…

Laying these at BSP returned a post-commission profit of 38.45% on turnover.

                                                                                               Summary
Top weights in nurseries on turf in Britain have the occasional profitable year but rarely pay to follow. Laying those who were had previous nursery experience returned a good profit, especially the ones who had a previous win under their belts.

You can follow Andrew Mount's FREE advices every day here

https://gg.co.uk/authors/andrew-mount/

SERIOUS PUNTER?

If you have enjoyed this feature, aren't just a carpet bagger and don't already have an account with AK Bets, you might want to consider signing up, there's an introductory offer OF UP TO £100 via our link below. Mounty and I will get some commission if you sign up and lose, but with these articles we'll do our best to ensure you don't, plus he stands them so if you win, AK hurts! Please click below to add to his pain by bagging AK's BIG LIMITS AND BIG PRICES!

                                                                   18+ http://BeGambleAware.org