Horseracing Systems #9 with Andrew Mount 'Class!'

CLASS BARRIERS

In his 1992 book ‘Betting For A Living’ Nick Mordin discusses class barriers…

“Class barriers are encountered most often by horses that won their last race. A large percentage of such horses will be stepped up in class – and 90% of them will lose.”

He continues…

“You can see this from the following statistics of handicap winners, taken from the 1990 flat racing season. It shows the results you would have achieved by betting handicap winners who raced in handicaps next time from June 1^st1990 to July 31^st 1990. (the survey was extended to September 25^th for the ‘down in class’ category to ensure a large enough sample.)

Up in class

Runners:                       234

Winners:                       30 (12.8%)

Return to £1 stake:    £170.61

Loss:                              £63.39 (27.1%)

Same class

Runners:                       177

Winners:                       46 (26.0%)

Return to £1 stake:    £187.24

Profit:                            £10.24 (5.8%)

Down in class

Runners:                       100

Winners:                       25 (25.0%)

Return to £1 stake:    £109.68

Profit:                            £9.68 (9.7%)

My Proform database only goes back to 1997 so I was unable to check Mordin’s figures, but I looked at last time out flat winners in the same period (June 1^st to July 31^st, British flat handicaps, turf and all-weather) last year…

Up in class

Runners:                       408

Winners:                       60 (14.71%)

Return to £1 stake:    £384.95

Loss:                              £32.05 (5.65%)

Same class

Runners:                       533

Winners:                       111 (20.8%)

Return to £1 stake:    £465.05

Loss                               £67.95 (12.8%)

Down in class

Runners:                       47

Winners:                       11 (23.4%)

Return to £1 stake:    £45.03

Loss:                              £1.97 (4.2%)

…all three areas made a loss, though those dropping in class retuned a profit of £5.43 to a £1 stake at Betfair SP (after 2% commission). Like Mordin I extended the class droppers sample until the end of September to give a bigger sample size, and the score was 20 winners from 97 bets for a profit of £19.25 at Betfair SP.

My figures use race class numbers (i.e. Class 1, Class 2, Class 3 etc) whereas Mordin took a switch from 0-70 to 0-75 company as being a class ride, even though both are regarded as Class 5 contests.

Since 2021, backing all last time out flat handicap winners (turf and all-weather) who were running in another flat handicap in Britain in the June/July period would have been a losing exercise…

…though the class risers returned a profit at Betfair SP…

Those down in class or running in the same class returned a significant loss and it looks as though the market over-reacts to these runners. My preferred punting angle is to oppose last time out winners, especially those who may have been flattered by a favourable track bias (e.g pace/draw).

One angle I’m looking at currently is the Ffos Las meeting on June 29^th. Race one was run using starting stalls, but all the other races featured a flag start, and it was hard to come from off the pace in the majority of those contests, with the winners described by the Racing Post as…

“Midfield” (1m4f)

“Made virtually all” (4-7f)

“In touch with leaders” (1m6f)

“Prominent, led 2f out” (7.5f)

“Prominent, led 2f out” (1m)

“Prominent, led over 3f out” (1m)

Two winners (from 15 runners) have already come out of that meeting including last Friday’s 33-1 Newbury winner NAKAAHA, who had finished an 80-1 tenth of 12 after losing significant ground at the start at that Ffos Las fixture.

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