Andrew Mount's Aintree Angles Day 1

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Aintree Day 1 stats

Cheltenham festival impact

Finished first or second in non-handicap company at the Cheltenham festival

Since 2018, backing runners at Aintree’s Grand National meeting who finished first or second in a non-handicap at the Cheltenham festival would have found 27 winners from 74 bets (37.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £16.37 to a £1 level stake at SP…

…those who had been rested for 30 days or longer were nine from 20 (+£14.65)…

Those Cheltenham festival non-handicap runners who finished third or worse at Prestbury Park didn’t fare so well…

Thursday races

1.45 – Boodles Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)

Prep race

Eight of the last ten winners prepped at Cheltenham, five in the Triumph Hurdle. Backing all 22 Triumph runners returned a profit of £4.36…

Horse country of breeding

Eight of the ten winners were French-bred, though backing all 39 qualifiers returned a loss of £3.64 at SP (+£2.73 at Betfair SP after 2% commission).

Trainers

Willie Mullins’ representatives recorded form figures of F112F1 (3-6) for a profit of £4.00.

2.20 – William Hill Manifesto Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

Trainers

Paul Nicholls has a poor record, with all 17 of his runners tasting defeat (expected winners = 3.39)…

Age

Six-year-olds have a good recent record…

Trainer nationality

Irish trainers have over-performed…

Days since last race

Those who raced within the past 28 days returned a loss of 50% on turnover (at SP)…

Six of those started as favourite and all were beaten…

Finishing position last time out

Last time out winners are 0-21 in the past ten years…

2.55 – Aintree Bowl Chase (Grade 1)

SP favourites

The market leader won seven of the past ten renewals…

Last time out winners

LTO winners were 0-8 (I was surprised that so few of the 74 runners were arriving at Aintree on the back of a victory)…

3.30 – Randox Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase

Running style

Eight of the ten winners raced prominently, front-runners were 0-10 and only two winners (from 174 runners) were ridden patiently…

4.05 – Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1)

Race classification last time out

All ten winners prepped in another Grade 1 (nine of them at Cheltenham) and backing all 37 qualifiers returned a small profit at Betfair SP…

Last time out Grade 1 winners were four from four…

…though the prices were skinny.

4.40 – Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase (Class 1)

Weight

Eight of the last ten winners carried 10-10 or less…

Weight rank

Horses ranked one through to five in the weights had a poor record…

Race class last time out

Eight of the ten winners prepped in Class 2 or Class 3 company…

Running style

Three winners made all (+£12.00 to a £1 level stake at SP), five were prominent (49 qualifiers, -£4.00) while only two winners (from 88 runners) were ridden patiently (-£41.00)…

Prep race

Those who prepped in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham festival were 0-39…

Previous chase wins

Seven of the last ten Red Rum winners had won just once over fences previous or were chase maidens..

…and backing all 36 qualifiers returned a profit of £22.00.

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