It Worked In The 80's? #6 'Backing Six Year Old Top Weights' for the wages.

Andrew Mount writes,

This week’s ‘It Worked in the 80s’ looks at a Systems Study by Formulator article with the by-line “A case for the six and up top weights”. I suspect this is from late March 1985, as the reverse side of the page refers to forthcoming appearance by Richard Dunwoody on the BBC chat show ‘Wogan’, which took place on March 27, 1985 according to Google (Christopher Lee was the main attraction). The cheery author states “live television is a risky business and, as Richard is riding earlier in the afternoon at Huntingdon, Wogan would be advised to have a standby in case Richard finishes the day’s sport with his leg round his neck” – charming!

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.The article begins… “A system involving six-year-olds and over in handicaps has been sent in by Simon Beet of Dorchester. To qualify a horse must carry top weight and when two or more horses have been allotted top weight there is no bet. Overweight and apprentice allowances are to be ignored. A survey was conducted over 100 results from the start of the 1984 Flat season to the middle of July, resulting in 80 losers and 20 winners. The 20 per cent win ratio is low in normal circumstances but is compensated for by high average SP of 5-1, producing a profit of 20 points to a 1pt level stake.”

Top weights in handicaps is an angle that’s often discussed, usually when it comes to the start of the nursery (two-year-old handicaps) season in July. When the top weight wins at a big price you’ll often hear a TV pundit or some random bloke in the betting shop say “well, it was the best horse in the race”.

Let’s see if Simon Beet of Dorchester was barking up the right tree by looking at the record of top weights in Flat turf handicaps in Britain since the beginning of 2021 (these figures include joint and co top weights)…

Not bad. A loss of £1894.87 at SP but that improves to just -£117.99 at Betfair SP after 2% commission (-0.90% on turnover). The WAX score (winners above expected) was 25.46, giving an A/E of 1.01. Now let’s split the results by horse age…

It looks like Simon Beet was on to something, as the six-year-olds returned a profit at Betfair SP (+£183.17), as did the five-year-olds. The 11-year-olds also finished in the black but from a tiny sample size.

Now let’s look at market position for those six-year-old top weights…

Those in the top five in the market fared well at SP and Betfair SP. Grouping them together gives the following returns…

…a profit of £196.35 at Betfair SP, £76.47 at SP and £290.03 at EP (evening price, 8.30pm, with bet365).

Formulator continues… “The examination of results was detailed and included the last two runs of the horse, the weight it is carrying in the qualifying race compared with the weight it carried last time out, plus the weight it carried the time before. The number of days since its last run were taken into account…racecourses were noted, and the distance of the race was compared with that of the horse’s previous race”.

I looked in to some of these – DSLR (days since last run) made no difference. Horses up in trip by a furlong or more usually struggled, those down in distance by a furlong or more showed a small profit, though the best angle was to back those running over the exact same trip as their last time out race…

Class movement weren’t mentioned but I thought it prudent to have a look. Class droppers returned a loss at SP (small profit at BSP), class risers lost at both SP and BSP, while horses running in the same class showed a big profit. Combining same class and exact same distance as last time out gives the following results…

LE BEAU GARCON (2.00 Ayr, Wednesday 21 May) could give the figures a boost the day before we record our accompanying video. (WON 11/2)

Summary

Back six-year-old top weights (including joint and co top weights) in Flat turf handicaps in Britain, especially those running over the same trip and in the same class as last time out.

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