Horse Racing With Andrew Mount #15 Wincanton Chase Front Runners

Wincanton Chase Course

Here's the link to Andrew's GG column

https://gg.co.uk/authors/andrew-mount/

It’s the season opener at Wincanton on Saturday (November 8^th) and I want to use this article to discuss the chase course at the Somerset venue.

Wincanton chases since racing resumed after COVID in then summer of 2020, by running style (L = led, P = prominent, H = held up)…

…Front-runners (L) had a 23.68% strike-rate and returned a big profit at SP (+£121.04), as did prominent (P) racers (17.21%, +£89.83 to a £1 level stake at SP). Hold-up (H) horses usually struggled, winning at a rate of just 8.17% and returning a loss of £269.67.

Predicting which horse is going to make the running isn’t always as simple as glancing at a pace map, though simply backing last time out front-runners in chases at Wincanton would have found 38 winners from 228 bets (16.7%) for a profit of £55.64…

This week’s feature event is the Badger Beers Handicap Chase, and this has been a front-runners’/prominent racers’ benefit in the past ten years…

…all ten winners led or raced prominently whereas hold-up horses were 0-70.

Those ranked first, second, third or fourth in Proform’s pace rankings were nine from 46 for a profit of £79.25…

This is Proform’s pace map from last year…

Three horses were stand outs on early pace and they filled the first three places with AL DANCER (aftertime alert: tipped in my free column on GG.co.uk) scoring at 25-1 from Lord Accord (11-4f) and Gustavian (9-1) with the Tote Trifecta paying £1,2020.20 (tricast only £638.34).

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