4/9/26 3:25 PM

Andrew Mount's Aintree Angles - Saturday

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4.00 – Randox Grand National Handicap Chase

Age

Those aged ten and older have underperformed in the last ten Grand Nationals, failing to record a single success from 164 runners (expected winners = 3.14)…

Horse country of breeding

Eight winners were Irish bred…

Sire country of breeding

Eight of the last ten winners were representing Irish sires…

…and backing all 115 qualifiers returned a profit of £66.00 to a £1 level stake at SP.

Finishing position last time out

Six of the last ten winners, including six of the last eight, were successful in their prep race (+£21.00)…

…and those runners who failed to complete the course last time out were 0-68 (254 in the table above = pulled up, 253 = refused, 250 = fell, 249 = brought down, 247 = unseated rider).

Recent hurdles form

The trend to Grand National winners running over hurdles earlier in the season in order to protect their handicap mark has been reversed in recent years. 118 horses arrived at Aintree with at least one hurdles run in Britain/Ireland in the past 12 months and only one of them won…

…4/1 shot Tiger Roll in 2019.

Running style

Another recent trends switch is running style. Front-runners/prominent racers used to be strongly favoured as they could stay out of trouble and avoid the host of fallers. However, since the fences were made much easier to jump the leaders tend to go off too fast and those ridden with more restraint have fared better, winning five of the past ten renewals…

Pace rating

Proform’s software awards each runner a pace rating between 0 and 12 based on their last three runs (led = 4pts, prominent = 2pts, held up = 0pts) and those with a pace rating of six or higher (i.e. more likely to race up with the pace) have a modest recent record…

…with just one winner from 143 runners (Nick Rockett last year).

Trainer nationality

Seven of the last ten winners were trained in Ireland…

Conclusion

I’ve had an early bet on JOHNNYWHO, successful in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham festival last month but check out my daily ‘best bets’ column on GG.co.uk for my final selection(s) on Saturday.

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3.05 – Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1)

Age

Horses aged five or six are 0-11 in the past ten years…

Running style

Nine of the last ten winners were ridden patiently…

Prep race

Seven winners prepped at Cheltenham though backing all 65 qualifiers returned loss of £4.46 at SP.

Sire country of breeding

Runners representing British sires have a good record…

Conclusion

Olly Murphy’s STRONG LEADER, winner of this in 2024 and runner-up to Hiddenvalley Lady last year, looks the obvious each-way play. Best on flat tracks, if we discard his runs at Ascot and Cheltenham his record reads 11112011212 (7-11) for a profit of £12.40.

2.30 – William Hill Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)

Jockey claim

Conditional jockeys who were claiming an allowance are 0-21 across the past ten renewals, though three of them finished second (20-1, 12-1 and 13-2) and two more ran third (10-1 and 13-2).

Weight rank

Backing the runners ranked in the top six in the weights would have found nine winners from 67 bets for a profit of £65.75…