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Andy Mount writes, 'A Tweet popped up on my timeline a couple of weeks ago which inspired me to have a closer look into wind ops.
First, let’s examine Jerry White’s assertion that horses returning from a wind operation, priced below evens SP), make bad bets…
Since wind operations had to be declared in Britain (since last January 2018) 10,242 runners have rocked up after wind surgery, with 1,111 winning (10.85%) for a sizeable loss of £2,1314.12 to a £1 level stake at SP (-20.84% on turnover)…
…however, at Betfair SP (after 2% commission) that loss becomes a small profit (+£83.49 or +0.82% on turnover).
Now let’s see how the odds-on shots faired (SP of 10/11 or shorter) up to and including the results on 28th September 2025…
…the 106 winners from 179 bets returned a loss at SP but laying they returned a profit at Betfair SP and laying them blind at BSP would have resulted in a loss of £5.14 or 2.87% on turnover, this suggests that Jerry’s advice is wide of the mark. That said, there may be some profitable lay angles within that sample, perhaps by opposing the qualifiers from the bigger yards. Paul Nicholls, Dan Skelton, Olly Murphy and Charlie Appleby qualifiers have been profitable to oppose up to now.
Splitting those odds-on wind-op recipients by race type makes interesting reading…
…with the Flat runners (AW and turf) both showing a profit at SP and Betfair SP.
In the early days of wind ops being declared I was an advocate of supporting them second time back after the surgery, the theory being that they needed a run to get used to being able to breath comfortably again at the business end of a horse race. These are the results…
…another loss at SP but a healthy £1,560.57 profit at BSP after commission (+16.98%) on turnover. Those who finished fourth or worse on their first run back after the surgery did especially well…
…there are two qualifiers on this angle running tomorrow (Wednesday, October 1st) – Elegant Call in the 4.18 at Catterick (lost) and Bathara in the 5.00 at Warwick won at 9/4.
These are the trainers with the highest WAX (winners against expected) scores with runners having their second start after wind surgery (regardless of where they finished last time out.
Summary
Laying odds-on runners on their first start following a wind operation has not been a profitable angle.
Backing runners on their second start following the surgery looks to be a more interesting punting angle.
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