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4.05 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Cup Stakes (7f Listed race) – Friday, September 18th
Official going – good to soft, soft in places (GoingStick 4.3). Light Rain forecast.
The stick reading of 4.3 could mean anything. Last autumn Newbury called 3.2 as heavy (26 October) as well as 5.6 (21 September).
Stats and Trends
A real mixed bag over the last ten years with no clear patterns regarding age, sex or running style. The standout stat is the poor record of horses returning from a break, with all 28 runners that were rested for more than six weeks drawing a blank…
Nostrum was sent off as the 2-1 favourite for this race last year on the back of a 281-day absence and a wind operation but trailed home last of eight, beaten by 29 lengths. The three qualifiers in 2023 included the 8-11 favourite Aldaary who was beaten into second place by 12-1 poke Popmaster. There is only one qualifier this year – Karl Burke’s REBEL’S GAMBLE. He has three wins and a second to his name from four goes on the all-weather but form figures of turf of 955 might suggest that he’s one to take on after almost ten weeks off the track. However, there has been promise in those two fifth places – the first came at Epsom on Oaks Day where he was ridden patiently when fifth to Formal in another 7f Listed race. That was a respectable effort given that the track was massively favouring early pace and all 35 hold-up horse were beaten that day. His Chester fifth to Holguin also looks useful given the subsequent efforts of the runner-up, Witness Stand, and third, Marvelman. I’ll stay neutral about this one for now until I see some prices.
The other interesting stat regards race classification last time out (GB/Ireland runs only), with seven of the past ten winners having contested a handicap. Backing all 26 qualifiers returned a profit of £14.56 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 2.64, A/E = 2.65).
Splitting those 26 horses who prepped in handicap company by finishing position last time out makes interesting reading, with six of them having finished first or second. Makes sense – why would you pitch your handicapper into a Listed race otherwise?
Those who ran first or second in a handicap LTO were six from 12 in the past ten years for a profit of £23.56. Let’s check for qualifiers today…
REMMOOZ is the only runner that prepped in a handicap, finishing third of 17 to Bullet Point in the 1m Clipper Handicap at York’s Ebor meeting. Owen Burrows’ colt failed to settle that day and though his latest win came over 1m – at York on his penultimate start – I’m not worried about the cut back to 7f given his two wins and Jersey Stakes fourth of 15 from three runs at the trip. Slow ground is an unknown – he’s yet to race on softer than good – but his breeding suggests that he should be OK provided it doesn’t turn heavy. He took a backwards step on the clock last time (Proform figure of 72) compared to his York win (79) and a return to that sort of figure could see him take this.
John & Thady Gosden’s SPY CHIEF has a bit to find with Remmooz on the clock, and he failed to build on his July Cup seventh when sixth to More Thunder in the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes over this C&D last time. However, that race has been used as a stepping stone to victory in this one in the past and it is certainly working out well, with third-placed Marvelman bolting up in the Group 2 Park Stakes at Doncaster last week, fourth-placed Rage Of Bamby finishing an 80-1 fourth of 17 in the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock (albeit from a favourable draw) and 25-1 fifth Fair Angellica recording an 11-1 success in a fillies’ Group 3 at Doncaster. The 11-length ninth – King’s Gamble – chased home Marvelman in second place when 20-1 at Doncaster (CSF paid £131.74) The remainder of the field have yet to run since. The ‘future form’ angle certainly makes him of interest and it’s just a case of whether the early market over-reacts to it. My gut says he’ll be value to back early and sell back before the race. The soft going is the obvious worry for this Kingman colt whose four turf runs have come on officially good to firm going. These are the sire’s stats on the Flat split by actual going (judged on race times not the official going), sorted by strike-rate…
…soft and heavy are at the bottom of the league table.
In my first form study angle I mentioned T.O.Y. (time of year) and at first glance Kevin Ryan’s VOLTERRA looks to be a spring/autumn colt. His record in March to May or September to November reads 31113 (3-5), whereas his record in high summer (June to August) is 40028 (0-5). However, he ‘won’ the race on the far side in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot last June, finishing 11th of 29 overall and went on to finish a good second at York in August 2024. The four-year-old looked set for a successful season when a 14-1 third to Ten Boby Tony at Haydock on his comeback in late May but ran below market expectations in France next time. The cut back to 7f and slower ground could be the key and he’s three from five on straight courses in Britain, including two from two at this trip. He received a stand-out Proform speed figure of 83 for his Ascot handicap win last October and is high on the shortlist.
Jack Channon’s FERROUS is a horse I have plenty of time for thanks to his all-weather record of 21151113 (5-8). He’s just two from 13 on turf with the wins coming in a maiden and a Class 4 handicap off 81 and I’ll take hm on despite a respectable third at Newmarket last time.
SHORT FINAL finished well held at Newcastle last month on his debut for Stuart Williams before a good second to Geography in a Group 2 at Bade-Baden. Slower ground and the shorter trip won’t hurt and he’s a ‘careful’ on my card.
BELLAPHINA’s four career wins have come in fillies-only company…
…and her record against the boys is the obvious concern…
Summary
My initial order of preference looks like this…
VOLTERRA
SPY CHIEF
REMMOOZ
SHORT FINAL
REBEL’S GAMBLE
FERROUS
BELLAPHINA
…which isn’t hugely helpful as that’s pretty much the order by official ratings. I’m hoping that the early market will over-react to Spy Chief’s sixth place finish last time out and I’ll be able to back him and trade out at shorter odds. VOLTERRA came good last autumn and he’s the one I expect to offer the best value if the going description is accurate (this is the fifth race on the card and we have four more straight-track contests before this one to get a proper handle on conditions). I could also be tempted by SHORT FINAL if he’s a daft price.
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