Form Book expert Andrew Mount talks to me (Simon Nott) about the basics of form study, what he looks for when sitting down to decipher a card. Here's the in-depth description of the work put in.
6.30 Sedgefield (Thursday, September 4th) – Play Coach And Referee Football @WorcsFA Handicap Chase (2m3f65y) (Class 4, 0-110, 4yo+)
What we know…
Sedgefield’s fences are easy and claim a low percentage of fallers (I keep a detailed list of %fallers by track). Generally, this course and distance has been kind to front-runners, with 22 winners from 71 qualifiers in handicap chases since the beginning of 2015 (+£41.43 to a £1 level stake at SP). That said, on soft ground the inside of the track can ride slower, favouring those who challenge late/wide on the better ground.
What we don’t know at this stage…
The going. This is the official description…
GOOD, Good to firm in places (GoingStick 8.1) (Watering) (Light rain)
That ‘light rain’ description refers to the race-day weather but doesn’t mention what is forecast the day before according to xcweatherco.uk..
My initial thought is that this is a race to take a close look at because rain on watered ground could see it turning soft and the form horses who have been running on quicker going this summer could prove vulnerable if taking their chance.
At the time of writing (10.30am on Monday morning) there are 12 runners with Jamie Snowden’s OBSESSEDWITHYOU (rated 112) the potential top weight on 12st 2lb. She’s two from four since switched to fences but both wins came in mares-only company, and her two chase starts against the boys (she runs in open company again here) have resulted in a 19-length last of four (5-4f) and a 23-length third of six (5-4f). Four races is obviously a small sample but she’s likely to be a shortish price again and I’ll be looking to take her on, albeit she will handle good to soft or softer going if the forecast rain arrives.
JET OF DREAMS
Point winner who has won four times under Rules over 2m-2m2f on officially good/faster going. One of those wins came here on September 23rd last year so that’s ticks in boxes regarding the course and T.O.Y. (time of year) which is something under-discussed when it comes to race analysis. A quick look at the horse’s record by going suggests that the forecast rain could be an issue, especially over this longer trip..
I’ll also cross reference with the ‘actual going’ (according to Proform) based on race times…
…an even stronger preference for very fast ground emerges and I move him below Obsessedwithyou in my pecking order.
Moving down the weights (I don’t always do this – I sometimes start from bottom to top) next up is MOODOFTHEMOMENT, trainer by David Thompson. This multiple point winner scored three times in the final quarter of 2024, though all the wins came right-handed on good ground and for another trainer (Matt Sheppard). He has form left-handed and on soft going but jumped poorly when a 40-1 eighth of nine on his stable debut at Uttoxeter in late July and I slot him in behind the other two in my pecking order.
Next, I bring up DREAM JET’s form on the Racing Post website and clock “POS” to order his career runs by finishing position. Four wins on officially good ground, the last two over 1m7.5f at Hexham. I then order by course to see if he’s run here. He has, finishing a 33-lengths sixth in handicap hurdle company when a well-backed 16-5 shot (silly price), fifth of 11 (7-1) and third of five (13-8f). Small sample but worrying for his backers. His latest fourth at Market Rasen offers encouragement – he possibly did too much too soon up with the pace that day (the winner and third came from the rear) and runner-up Prospect House, who did best of the prominent racers, only went down by a length at Cartmel next time when not looking in love with the track. What about the ground conditions? A glance at his form breakdown by official going shows that he’s been kept to good or softer conditions throughout his career..
…but the ‘actual going’ figures tell a different story…
One of those ‘good’ ground wins came on firm and another on good to firm. His PRB (% of rivals beaten) is low on good to soft going, albeit from a small sample. My instinct at this stage is to oppose him based on course form, trip and likely going.
Next up is LERMOOS LEGEND, a consistent veteran whose record since pulling up at Ffos Las in mid-April on the back of six-moth layoff reads 22221 (1-5), with the win coming by 9.5L from the aforementioned Prospect House at Market Rasen in July. Now that we’ve hit September, I’d worry about him holding his form. This is his record by month…
…have a look at his PRB from May to July – very good and highlighted in green but the figures drop off from August until the end of the year to 55%, 54.37%, 49.1%, 41.17%, 30.77% and then 5.56%, 0% and 0% from January to March. He backed up three wins in 2021 but since then his record immediately following a win reads 52PP (0-4).
SCARLET O’TARA won three times over hurdles in mares-only company last year but her chase record reads PPP (0-3) and she has looked far from natural over fences. This is one of her four entries over fences this week and it’s surprising that she hasn’t been returned to hurdles. I’m happy to take her on, even over these soft fences.
Five-year-old DELPOTRO is the youngest horse in the field and trainer Charlie Longsdon’s runners are always of interest at this time of year (his jumps record from 1st June to 30th September stands at 154 winners from 778 bets, 19.8% strike-rate, +£96.46 to a £1 level stake at SP)…
…he won twice in the French provinces and broke his duck for his current yard over 2m here back in May before pulling up over the same trip at Southwell. His course win came in a weak race – he made all and two fences were omitted – but his other course run saw him trade at 2.70 in-running from a Betfair SP of 5.6 and I’m thinking that he might prove to be a good trading opportunity despite the stamina doubt over this longer trip.
LIMERICK LEADER’s three wins have come when starting as favourite, the last two of them when making all. This is his record split by SP rank…
…a winner in Class 5 company at Newton Abbot in late June, he’s been beaten in Class 4 company in both subsequent runs, finishing second on each occasion after making the running, and my early notes are “vulnerable if taken on for the lead” and “possible back-to-lay trade if Delpotro doesn’t run”. Trip and ground (if it turns softer) will not pose a problem.
TOO COOL FORSHRULE made a winning chase debut at Market Rasen during Cheltenham week and followed up six days later in handicap hurdle company at Bangor (2m3.5f). The third run in quick succession was blamed for his Bangor eclipse (51L last of five when 11-10f for a Bangor handicap chase a further 21 days later) and he’s been freshened up since. The Proform speed figure of 66 he clocked for that Market Rasen win was useful for a chase debutant (Limerick Leader’s best chase figure is 68 while Obsessedwithyou’s is 69).
MAYOR KINGSTON – five-race maiden in points, three-race maiden over hurdles, starting at 12-1, 150-1 and 100-1 in maiden/novice company. ON face value he looks one to oppose but he’s a ‘K’ for careful on my card (‘C’ is for ‘chance’ before you question my spelling) as he represents a tricky tard, that of Sam England, whose handicap chase debutants have a good record…
..the last two qualifiers at Sedgefield both won (3-1 and 11-4) and my cop-out comment were I writing the Racing Post Spotlight would be “watch the market”.
RORY’S STORY could only finish a 13-length third when 11-4f at Cartmel last time and is up in trip/class. However, she fared best of the closers that day but has struggled over longer trips previously and she’s one I’m looking to take on.
COULDBEAWEAPON has won just once from 24 starts and that was when 11-8f for a Class 5 novice handicap hurdle at Worcester almost three years ago. He’s winless in six goes for Sam England but has placed in three of them, twice finishing second, and will cope with any easing of the ground. I’ve got him earmarked as a potential forecast play to finish second to two or three of the others.
Summary
At this stage I’m looking to take on the higher weighted horses who could prove vulnerable if the ground eases. Pace-wise if only one of Delpotro or Limerick Leader run I’ll probably back them in order to trade in running. Too Cool For Shrule is a potential bet. Mayor Kingston will be of interest if the money arrives, while Couldbeaweapon is a possible place only or forecast (to finish second) play.
LINK TO RICHARD SLATER'S PRO-FORM ARTICLE
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