Cheltenham festival stats – part 1 (general angles)
With the 2026 Cheltenham festival fast approaching I thought it worth having a look at a few stats and trends that might steer us onto a winner or two next month. First up, a fun one, which usually attracts plenty of comments when I post it on X….
Back every runner in every race at Betfair SP
Sounds daft, doesn’t it? But, since 2019, backing every runner in every race at the Cheltenham festival achieved the following results…
…a profit of £382.14 (after 2% commission) or +12.55% on turnover. There were two losing years in the seven-year sample (2024 and 2022). The shock results tend to come on the New Course (Thursday/Friday), usually in the Foxhunters or Albert Bartlett and splitting the seven-year sample by day of the week is very revealing…
…this is the Friday breakdown by year…
This certainly helps to explain why the Placepot can pay massively on the last two days of the festival and with the Tote allowing a unit stake as low as 1p with Placepot bets on their website there’s a case for chucking all the runners in the Foxhunters and hoping for a massive upset. IN2023, the bet paid £14,087.30 to a £1 stake thanks to 4-6 favourite Mighty Potter finishing third of seven in the opener and 6-4 jolly Luccia only managing fourth in the Dawn Run behind runners priced at 16-1, 15-2 and 12-1.Twenty-four hours later thee was a dividend of £23,672.80 thanks to the first three in the Albert Bartlett (18-1 150-1 and 16-1) and Foxhunters (66-1, 28-1and 50-1) being hard to find.
Headgear
Hurdlers in first-time hoods
The past ten Cheltenham festivals have seen 40 hurdlers fitted with a hood for the first time and only one of those won – Kopek Des Bordes at odds of 4-6 last year…
Beaten favourites, hurdles only
Backing hurdlers at Cheltenham who were beaten when starting as favourite for another hurdle races last time out has been a poor punting angle at the last 15 festival, with only 11 winners from 373 runners (2.95%strike-rate) for a huge loss of £273.46 to a £1 level stake at SP (-£260.64 at Betfair SP after 2% commission)…
…the expected number of winners based on their odds was 21.18.
Impressive last time out hurdle winners
At the past ten Cheltenham festivals, 76 hurdlers lined up on the back of a hurdles win having received the comment “impressive” or “comfortably” from Proform. Twenty of those followed up for a profit of £24.73to a £1 level stake at SP (+£45.65 at BSP after 2% commission)…
…ignoring the juvenile hurdlers (i.e. 4yos) improved the profits…
Sires
Backing progeny of the sire Jeremy at the Cheltenham festival would have found seven winners from 41 bets (17.07% strike-rate) for aprofit of £29.58 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£38.66 at Betfair SP after 2%commission). ..
…in handicaps only the score was three from 18 (+£34.00,+£42.62 BSP) with six of the 15 beaten horses placing, often at big prices (28-1,25-1, 12-1, 12-1. 10-1, 9-1 and 100-30).
Trainers
Willie Mullins In Handicap Chases
My database goes back to 1997 and in that time, Willie Mullins has saddled 54 runners in handicap chases at the Cheltenham festival and all 54 lost…
…the expected number of winners was 3.10.
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