Here's Andrew Mount with a fist full of stats, facts and figures for Cheltenham Thursday, including some big priced suggestions. Incidentally, if you are a serious punter wanting to get on and not worried about BOG, justice payments, bonuses and other nonsense, you could do a lot worse than opening an account with AK BETS ready for Cheltenham. The boss bets to his opinion, if you think you are better than him you can get some real value. Just click on the link.
Andrew Mount’s Cheltenham Festival Stats
Day three – Thursday, March 12
1.20 – Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
Age
The last ten winners of the Dawn Run were aged five or six, Juveniles were 0-9, while horses aged seven or older were 0-26…
Trainer Nationality
Irish trainers are leading the way, with seven wins…
Running Style
Seven winners ridden patiently (H for held up in the table below, two were prominent (P) and one made the running (L)…
Finishing Position LTO
All ten winners had finished in the top three in their prep race. Backing all 134 qualifiers returned a loss at SP (+12.33) but a profit of £56.06 at Betfair SP after 2% commission…
Four winners, including three of the last four, were stepping back in trip after scoring over 2m3f or further and backing all 26 qualifiers returned a profit of £18.88…
Course LTO
Five of the ten winners prepped at Leopardstown or Sandown…
…and backing all 25 qualifiers returned a profit of £14.38. Backing qualifiers with a top three-finish at those two tracks would have found five winners from 18 bets (+£21.38). The Sandown winners ran in the Jane Seymour which was transferred to Warwick this year and won by Kingston Queen from White Noice and A Path To Ronda.
2.00 – Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Grade 2)
This is only the second running of the Jack Richards but it’s worth mentioning the strong bias to front-runners in chases on Cheltenham’s New Course and early pace certainly dominated the inaugural running of this race last year, with the first six finishers – priced at 7-1, 125-1, 66-1, 9-1, 33-1 and 4-1 - described by the Racing Post as “prominent early, led from 1st”, “led early, prominent 1st”, “prominent”, “in touch with leaders”, “in touch with leaders, prominent 4th” and “in touch with leaders”. Check that pace map before getting involved.
3.20 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
Age
Seven-year-olds have performed well in recent years, landing six of the last ten runners. Backing all 36 qualifiers returned a profit of £48.60 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 2.70, A/E = 2.23)…
…perming the seven-year-olds in the Tote Exacta or computer straight forecast would have hit the one-two in 2019 (11-8 beat 33-1) and in 2020 (50-1 beat 20/1, Exacta paid £1,464).
Trainer nationality
Irish trainers have taken seven of the last ten renewals…
Running style
Seven winners came from off the pace (H = held up), two made all (L = led) and one was prominent (P)…
Days since last run
Those who had raced within the past four weeks fared poorly…
Race type last time out
Those who prepped over fences failed to score from 14 runners…
Race classification last time out
All ten winners prepped in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 contest. Those that didn’t were 0-17…
System
Backing seven-year-olds who were returning from a break of at least 29 days and prepped in Grade 1 or Grade 2 company would have found six winners from 32 bets for a profit of £52.63 at SP (+£124.38 at Betfair SP after 2% commission)…
4.40 – Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)
Penultimate Start
This is an odd but interesting stat. Pertemps Final runners who finished first or second on their penultimate start (perhaps showing their hand too early in the season?) had a poor record, with a 0-95 record in the past ten runnings…
..whereas those who had finished third or fourth in their prep race (this often occurred in a Pertemps Qualifier) would have found seven winners from 50 bets for a profit of £59.00…
..this angle would have seen us safely through to the next leg of the Placepot in each of the past ten seasons.
Headgear
Nine of the last ten winners wore a tongue-tie…
…and backing all 50 qualifiers returned a profit of £75.00. none of the runners priced up at 25-1 or shorter wore a tongue-tie last time out. Ambion View (33-1) wore a first-time tongue-tie when third at Chepstow the other day and would have possibilities for the Joe Tizzard yard. American Mike, Monmiral, Small Town Hero, Tranquil Sea and Eyed, who were all priced at 33-1 or bigger at the time of writing, have also been tongue-tied recently. Nicky Henderson’s Doddiethegreat won this in a first-time tongue-tie last year and it will be interesting if his trainer tries the same trick on my antepost fancy Bold Endeavour.
Running Style
Nine winners came from off the pace, one was prominent (from 63 qualifiers) while front-runners were 0-10.
5.20 – Rosconn Group Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase
Days Since Last Run
Those making a quick return to action (28 days or sooner) have fared well, with six of the last ten winners falling into this category…
Running Style
Cheltenham’s New Course favours early pace but the bias often goes out of the window in raced confined to amateur jockeys, who sometimes go off too fast. Runners ranked one, two, three or four by Proform’s pace ratings (i.e. those judged most likely to make the running based on their recent chase starts) have a combined record of one from 55 for a loss of 46.00…
…albeit the expected number of winners was only 1.95.
Age
Horses aged nine and older have a combined record of one from 100 in the past ten renewals…
Trainer Nationality
Seven of the last ten winners were Irish trained…