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Example articles…
Value to Lay (Wednesday, June 3)
9.00 Warwick – Zestful Hope (4th of five, beaten by 38L, 4-1, approx. 2.88 in place market)
Yesterday’s VTL (value to lay) selection Finlaggan could only finish fourth (5-2f, traded at around 1.5 in running) at Pontefract and there are several possibilities today. I was expecting to select A Major Payne (4.18 Nottingham) as my tracker note for Michael Bell’s five-year-old simply reads “ponce – lay all starts”. He took his career score to 0-17 when runner-up at Newmarket last month, trading at 2.46 in the run from a Betfair SP of 6.84 but Oisin Murphy rides for the first time today and if anyone can persuade him to finally get his head in front it could be him and I’m not keen to lay the current 5.1. He may not be a bad back-to-lay option, and I might take that route. Kiss Me My Love (7.10 Ripon) qualifies as a lay for me on the ‘oppose Roger Fell’s last time out winners’ angle – just 16 from 174 (9.2%) have scored since the start of 2021 for a loss of £98.90 at BSP (+£94.53 if laying, +54.33% on turnover) – though she’s in excess of 8-1 and if I do take her on it will have to be in the place market. She has a tricky draw in stall 11 too and her sole previous win for her current handler was followed by a 6-1 fifth. Glory Hyde (7.42 Ripon) is another Roger Fell inmate bidding to back up though looks well drawn in 12 of 13 and he’s out to 12.5 on Betfair. Instead, I’m waiting for the 9.00 at Warwick in order to oppose Zestful Hope. Charlie Longsdon’s nine-year-old has the prominent running style so often favoured here but could struggle now returned to a left-handed track – he’s 0-19 in this direction as compared to 5 from 19 right-handed. His course record stands at 5736 (0-4), with the third place in a seven-runner contest. He’s currently 6.2/6.8 on Betfair and my intention is to lay in the two places market.
Value To Lay (Tuesday, June 2)
4.48 Pontefract – Finlaggan (4th, 5-2 favourite)
I looked at Shemiyla Star (3.18 Pontefract) for today’s ‘Value to Lay’ column, as Charlie Johnston has a poor record with male runners on their juvenile debuts but unlike with recent qualifier Time For The Moon (third of four, 11-10 favourite) he’s a big price (around 11-1) and I tend to lay at a maximum of 6.2 on Betfair (more, if I have multiple lays in the same race). I will sometimes head to the place market to lay if I can’t lay 6.2 or shorter for the win but I can happily leave the race alone. Johnston’s Mr Cool (3.48 Pontefract) was another possibility as he’s lost all 19 starts in fields of eight or more runners but we have to go to 9-1 to lay him and a couple of non-runners (nine go at the time of writing) would turn him into a bet for me and he could shorten up in-running if leading early which looks likely. Of greater interest is David O’Meara’s Finlaggan in the 1m2f handicap (4.48), despite the yard’s good current form. This five-race maiden has been beaten at odds of 2-1 and 11-8 in his last two starts and now gets first-time cheekpieces, not a positive angle where progeny of his sire Night Of Thunder are concerned. The current score stands at just five winners from 108 qualifiers for a loss of £84.13 at SP (-£79.92 at BSP after 2% comm). Laying these blindly at BSP retuned a profit of £77.39 (+71.66% on turnover). O’Meara’s three previous qualifiers were all beaten and he’s currently 3.75/3.85 on Betfair.
Stats and Systems (Monday, June 1)
2.07 Lingfield – Amber Honey (9th, 12-1)
System – Stable switchers, ex-Ed Dunlop
Since the start of 2015, had we bet every ex-Ed Dunlop inmate who was switching to another trainer we’d have won 25 of our 185 bets (13.51% strike-rate) and made a profit of £61.67 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£133.87 at Betfair SP after 2% commission). Amber Honey clocked a good speed figure when fifth in a 1m handicap at Nottingham in April on her final start for Dunlop and will be happier back on the all-weather on her debut for Pat Phelan. She hit the frame in two of her three handicap starts at this venue for her old yard and might be worth a small place-only interest.
2.42 Lingfield – Walking On Clouds (WON 9-2)
System – Chelsea Banham, Lingfield, first four in the betting
The market speaks volumes where the Chelsea Banham yard is concerned, with 26 of their 70 favourites winning (37.14%), compared to 17.53% for second favourites, 16.25% for third favourites and 14.08% for fourth favourites. Those who were fifth or worse in the market were just 16 from 561 (2.85%) for a huge loss of £326.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. At Lingfield only (turf or all-weather) her runners in the top four in the market were 18 from 62 (29.03%) for a profit of £18.28 to a £1 level stake at SP. At the time of writing her Walking On Clouds was trading as the 5-1 third choice (6.6 on Betfair) and the gelding, third over course and distance last time, could get loose on the lead here. If he's still prominent in the betting just before the off I'll be having a win-only bet as well as backing him to lay back in-running.
6.15 Windsor – Belardo Ace (2nd, 7-2)
System – Andrew Balding, second time out 2yos, colts, beaten on debut
Andrew Balding has a solid record with his juvenile colts on their second career outing, with those who were beaten on their debuts landing 97 of their 501 starts (19.356% strike-rate) for a profit of £183.60 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£414.44 at Betfair SP after 2% commission). Today’s sole qualifier is Belardo Ace who looks set to build on last month’s encouraging introduction at Salisbury where he finished a 16-1 fifth of nine. Any easing of the ground will suit.
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